2014 MTG Hall of Fame – My Ballot

Hall of Fame season is my favorite Magical season. In past years coverage has grown and gone to great lengths to bring us the stories and narratives behind the game and Hall of Fame season is something that has been doing that for years. There are countless articles by a wide variety of voters and non-voters and who they are (or would be) voting for with criteria ranging across performance, longevity, contributions to the game, deck-building prowess, personality and others. It’s the stories that I love the most.

Part of what makes Magic such a great game is the community it has and much of that community is owed to how some of the game’s greats have cultivated it. And while it’s great to know that Finkel has 63 top 8s (probably, I didn’t look that one up) I think it says something that he still regularly hosts beginner Magic drafts to introduce the game to new players. Those stories often go untold, or at least under-told, and to me they can’t be told often enough. That’s what makes this time of year special to me, as often articles will center not only around someone’s accomplishments but also around how they’ve had a positive impact on the game.

Last year was the first year I had a vote for the Hall of Fame and I wrote a post on my methodology. Read through the intro, as it all still holds true. If you’re in a hurry and don’t want to click through, the basic gist is that I’ve taken all current HOF members and their stats (at the time of being voted in) and found some overall HOF credentials. I then use those as a baseline for whom to consider for a vote this year. That’s just the starting point though. I wrote this 2 years ago and it is still the most important part of this analysis:

It is important to emphasize that these numbers are only reflective of performance at Pro Tour tournaments. While they might serve as a barometer for playing ability, they have no relation to integrity, sportsmanship, or contributions to the game. So, even if we could boil everything down to a single number and sort by that number, we still would not have the entire picture. What I’m trying to say here is to be careful with these numbers. They start a dialogue on a player—they do not represent the entire dialogue.

With that in mind, I updated the HOF standards for 35 of the 36 members of the Hall. I again excluded Randy Buehler’s career. Here’s my explanation from last year:

     The Hall of Fame standards, fairly or not, are skewed by Randy Buehler. Randy was a special case. He played in 12 PTs. He was electric. He only missed top 64 in 2 of those, with 5 top 16s and a win. His career was cut short by his decision to accept a job with Wizards. I believe his case to be the exception, and that had his career in Magic continued with the PT and not with its creation his numbers would have reflected his brilliance as a player. However, as I believe his case to be the exception, he creates a bit of a conundrum. Due to its brevity, his career is responsible for several of the HOF minimums. Specifically, # of Pro Tours, # of Pro Points, # of Top 8s, # of Top 64.

I truly do not mean this in any kind of negative fashion. I believe that had Randy continued playing on the Tour he would be responsible for more HOF Bests than Worsts. But that didn’t happen, and here we are. As such, I think it is fair when examining the careers of other potential Hall of Fame inductees to do so through a lens of a world without Randy’s abbreviated career. If other voters think differently, I respect that and encourage them to inspect the candidates however they see fit.

The updated standards:

	PTs	Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	Pro Points
Average	40	65	36	2	5	8	13	19	1	312
Min	20	103	82	–	2	4	5	12	–	174
Max	62	32	10	6	11	18	21	28	7	505
Median	39	58	34	2	5	7	12	19	1	293

 

From here it is a simple matter of Excel wizardry to see how each of the 39 eligible players compare to these standards. I got their stats from here. Note that this year’s eligible list of 39 players is significantly less than last year’s 71. This is due, to the change in the rules that shifted the threshold from 100 to 150 career Pro Points. There were 33 players on last year’s ballot who did not have 150 pro points.

Of the 39 eligible players, there are 11 who meet the HOF minimums in all 10 categories. There are an additional 8 who only missed in 1 category and 3 who missed in 2 categories. That’s 22 people who I think are in the discussion for Hall of Fame inclusion. I’ll review them in alphabetical order.

Bold green represents where the player is at or above the HOF median

Red italics represent where the player is below the HOF minimum

Gamer	PTs	Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Bohny, Nico	24	103	81.5	0	2	4	6	8	0	1	174

Nico meets the minimum in all but top 64s, where he’s 4 shy. He was on the ballot last year and got 1 vote from each committee. He’s played in 2 PTs and 3 GPs since, hardly enough to move the needle. He did get a top 16 though, which was enough to move him from meeting 7 HOF minimums to 9 (also moving up his 3 year median).

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Edel, Willy	27	103		91	2	4	4	6	8	0	6	238

Wily is one of the stronger candidates, despite not meeting the HOF minimum in 2 categories. Willy saw a jump in voting last year, up to 6.4% (6.8% using this year’s rules) after never posting better than 1.2%. I expect he’ll continue to see some momentum swing but the only top 8 since voting last year was at GP Detroit. I doubt that’s enough to garner 33% more of the ballot.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Fabiano, Gerard	48	96.5		60	0	1	6	9	18	0	7	266

Gerard has played in a lot of events and has some success. It’s a career I’d be very happy to have. He’s 96^th on the all-time money list. He recently won a GP (Montreal). He’s gotten between 1% and 2% of the overall HOF vote for the last 3 years almost exclusively as a result of Player Committee voting. He one of those guys that you can’t help but enjoy being around. He does things like this. All of that said, I don’t think his career is at the Hall of Fame level his personality is.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Froehlich, Eric	37	60		26.5	2	3	9	13	19	0	10	279

EFro is 51^st on the money list. He peaked at 5% of the vote last year (6.4% using the new rules). Last season wasn’t as good to him as the 2012-2013 season was but I think he’ll benefit from not having Ben Stark, LSV and Huey on the ballot more than from last season’s performances. He hits all of the minimums and is median-or-better in half of them. He’s going on my short list.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Gary, Justin	44	58.5		25	2	3	8	20	24	1	3	252

7, 6, 15, 16, 8, 8, 8 and 10. Those are Justin’s HOF ballot finishes from last year through 2006, respectively. Is the argument that he keeps getting attention so he must be worth it, or is it that he’s had 8 chances at induction without getting there so why should he get my vote? Instead of letting voters of yesteryear dictate my vote for this year I’ll simply leave it at this: Justin’s numbers easily warrant a longer discussion. He hits all minimum barriers of entries and has numbers on par or better than the HOF median for 7 of 10 metrics. He wouldn’t be the best in the HOF in anything, but that’s hardly a knock on him. He’s on my short list.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Herberholz, Mark	35	79		59	2	4	4	7	16	1	4	198

Here’s what I said about Mark last year, and I think it still rings true:

Mark meets all of the criteria. I know he gets the attention of some voters (13^th and 7^th in his 2 previous appearances on the ballot). His 4 top 8s are impressive, but no additional top 16 finishes and only 3 other top 32s is problematic. Looking at this, it seems like Mark is more of an all-or-nothing player than a consistent threat. Then again, there are 9 additional top 64 finishes, which goes against what I just said. I think Mark is border-borderline. Not quite in my short list.

He was again 13^th last year, with 6.7% of the vote.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Hoaen, Richard	37	61		49	0	1	6	9	19	0	7	225

No wins. 1 top 8. Everything else is great. Richie is great. He’s one of few to ever be considered best in the world at any format. But he’s not a Hall of Famer.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Ikeda, Tsuyoshi	59	123		67	0	4	8	12	18	0	6	313

Tsuyoshi is lacking in career median, but maybe that’s because he’s played in 59 [expletive deleted] Pro Tours. You would have to have some pretty compelling argument against reality to exclude Ikeda from a short-list discussion. I do not have such an argument.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Johns, Scott	27	52		32.5	1	5	6	10	17	1	2	164

Scott is one of those old-school players of whom I’m sure many of today’s players aren’t aware. Historically he has gotten more support from the Selection Committee than the Player Committee and that’s never gotten him to even half of the 40% necessary. With the new un-weighted vote, I suspect the road will be even tougher. The median and top 8s are the obvious standouts here, though the career median is only over 27 PTs. I’m changing gears on him from last year, where he did make my short list. This year, not so much.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Juza, Martin	31	90		26.5	5	2	4	7	12	0	18	352

If this were the Magic: The Gathering Grand Prix Hall of Fame, Martin would be a lock. He’s a rare exception where outstanding GP performances could possibly outweigh strong-but-not-overwhelming PT performances and get him elected. It’s an interesting case. 5 POY top 10 finishes is also indicative of a long tenure as one of the game’s most prolific players. Those plus the huge pile of pro points and 4 GP wins are enough to get on my short list. Last year he got 21.4% of the vote, I expect that number to go up this year (3 more GP top 8s).

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Kaji, Tomohiro	23	56		37	1	3	6	9	12	1	3	152

Short career, hasn’t played recently, strong career. Not really HOF material though.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Lebedowicz, Osyp	37	57		41	2	3	7	12	21	1	4	230

Last year I had Osyp on my ballot until the end when I simply submitted 4 names (LSV, Huey, Stark, Pikula). Nothing has really changed since last year. His numbers are still great and easily in the upper-echelon of eligible players. Short list.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Lybaert, Marijn	30	86.5		32	1	4	6	9	14	0	3	203

That 3 year median is really luscious. I mean, look at it. Embrace it. 4 top 8s is also outstanding. To me this is a case of a really really good career. But 4 top 8s isn’t an auto-HOF inclusion. There are 50 (!) people with that many top 8s. Without a win or something else to make him stand out I’m not there.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Martell, Tom	17	32		16	1	2	6	9	10	1	5	212

This may be the most interesting name on my list. Tom misses on number of PTs played in (by 3) an number of top 64s (by 2). So it isn’t like he’s that far off from the Hall minimums, but he’d be setting a new minimum nonetheless. Fun fact: he’d also be setting a new high bar. Well, tying it. His career median of 32 would be tied with Olle Rade for best in the HOF. Olle did it over 20 PTs. Amazingly, his 3 year peak of 16 wouldn’t be the best. It would be 4^th behind Finkel (10), Kamiel (13) and Zvi (14) and just ahead of Randy (16.5), LSV (16.5) and Kai (17). There have only been 2 players elected with 2 or fewer top 8s: the already discussed Randy Buehler, and Raphael Levy. I think Tom is the most likely to become the 3^rd. He’s on my short list, but I think I really want another year and another top 8 out of him (I’m sure he wouldn’t mind obliging me).

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Mihara, Makihito	37	89		39	1	5	7	11	15	1	7	315

Mihara added a PT and GP top 8 to his resume since last year, and he was just short of my short list then. He got 29.9% of the vote last year. I have to think he’s as good a bet as any to get in this year. He’s definitely on my short list this year.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Mori, Katsuhiro	36	68		48	1	3	7	11	17	1	15	293

He was on my short list last year and added a GP top 8. I also compared him to Mihara last year, but the gap there has become substantial. The peak is considerably lower and 2 top 8s is a lot to make up for. But it’s not a competition between these 2 for the short list so I think he still makes it.

I whiffed here. I totally missed on Mori’s suspension . To me, this is an easy fix, Mori is no longer on my short list.

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Parke, Jamie	29	88		63	0	3	4	6	14	0	3	161

Jamie is short on Pro Points by 13 but otherwise hits all of the minimums. He is one of what I believe are 4 people with PT top 8s in 3 decades (Finkel, Chapin, Kai). He has not, however, been a consistent force on the PT. That could be changing, with a GP and PT top 8 in the past season and a renewed commitment to the game. Right now though I don’t think he’s in the discussion.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Parker, Brock	32	75		44	0	1	3	10	15	1	7	193

Brock only misses the minimum in 2 categories, but they’re pretty important ones. Nothing else is really there to warrant further discussion.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Rietzl, Paul	37	72		68	0	4	7	11	16	1	9	298

Paul had a decent case last year. He’s added a top 8 and another top 16 and sure, why not, a GP top 8 for giggles since then. Now he has a very strong case. Little Darwin, indeed.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Saito, Tomoharu	35	82		25	4	5	6	10	15	1	19	390

Again, I’ll refer to last year’s post:

I believe that, if you have cheated at Magic, been caught, served a suspension, cheated again, been caught again, and served another suspension, you do not meet the Integrity and Sportsmanship clauses in the Hall of Fame rules. I do not think ‘being kept out’ of the Hall is punishment. I think being elected is an honor, one that so few people earn it can’t possibly be considered punishment to not be on that list.

I haven’t moved from this position and don’t suspect I will be.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Wafo-Tapa, Guillaume	30	97.5		22	3	5	9	12	13	1	7	258

He falls under the same category as Saito. Different infractions, same result. His actions are not honorable or virtuous.

Update: After initially posting this I’ve gotten a lot of feedback from supporters of Wafo-Tapa and virtually nothing from those agreeing with me. This led me to do some more research (this is exactly the sort of dialogue I hope to have, by the way, and why I wanted to post this earlier rather than later). I want to clarify that I do think his transgressions weren’t as severe as Saito’s – they were different suspensions after all – but I also consider the HOF standards to be rather black and white on the topic. “The player’s performances, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, and contributions to the game in general” are to be considered. Wafo-Tapa’s actions did not demonstrate integrity, they were unsportsmanlike and they had a negative contribution to the game. I can understand that others feel differently and I support that. That’s why we have this process. This is how I feel on the subject.

 

Gamer	PTs		Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Yasooka, Shouta	39	68		29	2	1	6	12	19	1	18	353

Wow, that 1 PT top 8 is really ugly in a sea of exquisite numeric splendor isn’t it? I want to roll around in those numbers. I want to somehow turn those numbers into a Scrooge McDuck tower and swim in them. He’s been trending upwards in voting, going from 5% to 14% to 17% to 27% over the past 4 years. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another rise. He’s on my short list.

 

That’s all 22 gamers who met at least 8 HOF minimums. Of them, 10 9 are on my short list:

Gamer	PTs	Median	3 yr Median	POY T10	PT T8s	PT T16s	PT T32s	PT T64s	PT Wins	GP T8s	Pro Points
Froehlich, Eric	37	60	26.5	2	3	9	13	19	0	10	279
Gary, Justin	44	58.5	25	2	3	8	20	24	1	3	252
Ikeda, Tsuyoshi	59	123	67	0	4	8	12	18	0	6	313
Juza, Martin	31	90	26.5	5	2	4	7	12	0	18	352
Lebedowicz, Osyp	37	57	41	2	3	7	12	21	1	4	230
Martell, Tom	17	32	16	1	2	6	9	10	1	5	212
Mihara, Makihito	37	89	39	1	5	7	11	15	1	7	315
Mori, Katsuhiro	36	68	48	1	3	7	11	17	1	15	293
Rietzl, Paul	37	72	68	0	4	7	11	16	1	9	298
Yasooka, Shouta	39	68	29	2	1	6	12	19	1	18	353

 

From this list I think selecting 5 at random would result in a very reasonable ballot. But 5 shouldn’t be the goal of the ballot, it is merely a limit. These days a given Pro Tour will have somewhere in the realm of 350-450 players. There are currently 36 members of the HOF. In theory, 10% of the field could be in the Hall. To me, that’s an awful lot. I’ve been on record as being a ‘small Hall’ type of person and I’m still there. I would prefer the Hall be even smaller than it is now, but that’s not something I can impact here. I can, however, help influence any further inductees with my ballot. So I’m not really going to aim for 5, but rather I’ll aim for whoever is worthy and be happy with however many that is.

One thing I will say is that this year’s ballot has decidedly less exciting names than last year’s. I truly mean no offense with that comment, I don’t see how it could be offensive to not be considered as good as Stark / Huey / LSV – those guys are all time legends. I don’t think anyone on this ballot is on the same level as they are, though Mihara gives me some pause with that statement.

One just this first pass, the only other name that has me flinching is Paul Rietzl. If ballots were due today, mine would be 2 people: Makihito Mihara and Paul Rietzl. I’m glad that they aren’t, though. They’re due 20 days from today. During that time I plan to dig through more numbers. I plan to read others’ ballots. Most importantly, I plan to expose myself to as many stories about all of these great players as I can. From there I’ll surely have a more informed opinion than I do now.

I love this time of year.